Market report · Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
The State of Outbound Sales in Nashville, 2026
How outbound selling looks across the Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN metro right now: who the buyers are, which trades have room, what is being built, what a rep costs to hire here. Then a 4-tool kit to work the market this month.
- 5,660business sites with 20+ people across the categories trades sell to, #29 of our 100 metros
- 84buyer sites per commercial painting contractor, #16 of 86 markets: the best rank of any trade here
Sites: U.S. Census Bureau, County Business Patterns 2023; rank among the 100 metros on our market pages. Room: U.S. Census Bureau, County Business Patterns 2023 sites per contractor in U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, private ownership, 2026 Q1, among markets with at least 10 contractors.
Executive summary Read this if nothing else
5 things to know about outbound sales in Nashville
Biggest buyer pool
Restaurants: 1,787 sites
with 20 or more people, the largest buyer category in Nashville-Davidson, ahead of retail stores (1,085).
Where the metro leans
Hospitals: 4.06x the U.S. mix
Also over-represented: apartment and residential property managers (1.53x) and warehousing and distribution (1.52x). Trades that serve these buyers have more of them here than the national average suggests.
Most room
Commercial Painting & Coatings: #16 of 86 markets
84 buyer sites with 20+ people for each of 35 local commercial painting contractors. The most crowded is commercial electrical, #84 of 100.
Biggest reason to call
New Nissan Stadium, about $2.2 billion
75 percent complete as of March 2026, opening February 2027. One of 6 named, sourced projects in this report.
Hiring locally
$124,700 for an in-house SDR's first year (illustrative)
At a $55,000 base salary, once commission, payroll taxes and benefits, tools, recruiting and training, turnover and manager time are added, before ramp time.
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, County Business Patterns 2023; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, private ownership, 2026 Q1; project sources as of 2026-09; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS), May 2025. Full list at the end.
Chapter 01 The market
Who buys in Nashville-Davidson
5,660 business sites in Nashville-Davidson have 20 or more people on site in the categories commercial trades sell to. That ranks #29 of the 100 metros we publish. Here is what those buyers are and where they sit.
The largest buyer categories
Sites with 20 or more people are the ones worth an SDR's time: big enough to have a facility lead, a service budget and a contract that comes up for renewal. The "vs. U.S. mix" column compares each category's share of local employment with its national share (1.00x is the U.S. average).
| Category | Sites with 20+ | All sites | vs. U.S. mix | 1-yr change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RestaurantsLargest pool | 1,787 | 4,684 | 1.17x | +278 |
| Retail stores | 1,085 | 6,634 | 1.15x | +121 |
| Medical, dental and outpatient offices | 640 | 4,377 | 1.05x | +356 |
| Manufacturing plants | 536 | 1,552 | 1.11x | +52 |
| Wholesale distributors | 427 | 2,071 | 1.14x | -82 |
| Senior living and nursing | 217 | 364 | 0.74x | +18 |
| Churches and religious organizations | 193 | 1,488 | 0.62x | +24 |
| Grocery stores | 183 | 849 | 0.91x | +14 |
| Hotels | 161 | 423 | 1.43x | +19 |
| Trucking companies | 153 | 840 | 0.84x | +29 |
Nashville-Davidson leans toward hospitals (4.06x), apartment and residential property managers (1.53x) and warehousing and distribution (1.52x). A trade that already sells to those buyers elsewhere has a deeper pool here than the national numbers suggest, and a case study from one of them travels well on the phone.
It is thinner than the U.S. mix in churches and religious organizations (0.62x) and golf courses and country clubs (0.68x). A program built around those buyers runs out of fresh accounts sooner here.
Growing fastest over the past year, by establishment count: medical, dental and outpatient offices (+356), hospitals (+342) and restaurants (+278). New sites have no incumbent vendor yet.
The metro
Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN: 14 counties in this report's counts.
Davidson County, Rutherford County and Williamson County hold 73% of the larger business sites, so most programs start there.
Where the sites are
| County | Sites with 20+ | Share of metro |
|---|---|---|
| Davidson CountyStart here | 2,577 | 46% |
| Rutherford County | 781 | 14% |
| Williamson County | 771 | 14% |
| Sumner County | 374 | 7% |
| Wilson County | 340 | 6% |
| Maury County | 210 | 4% |
| Robertson County | 124 | 2% |
| Dickson County | 108 | 2% |
Chapter 02 The competition
Which trades have the most room in Nashville
Buyer sites per contractor is a rough read on how crowded a trade is: more sites for each local competitor means more doors nobody else is knocking on. Each trade's Nashville figure is ranked against the other markets we track.
| Trade | Rank among markets | Sites per contractor | Contractors | 1-yr change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial Painting & CoatingsMost room | #16 of 86 | 84 | 35 | 0 |
| Commercial Cleaning & Janitorial | #32 of 100 | 4.3 | 482 | +40 |
| Commercial HVAC & Mechanical | #35 of 100 | 11 | 180 | -2 |
| Commercial Landscaping | #37 of 100 | 4.0 | 768 | +65 |
| Paving & Asphalt | #37 of 94 | 43 | 72 | +3 |
| Commercial Flooring | #31 of 68 | 75 | 26 | -1 |
| Commercial Roofing | #50 of 89 | 62 | 47 | +4 |
| Fire Protection | #54 of 96 | 40 | 86 | +7 |
| Commercial Construction | #58 of 100 | 4.3 | 390 | +26 |
| Managed Service Providers | #66 of 100 | 2.3 | 1,310 | -31 |
| Commercial Electrical | #84 of 100 | 7.2 | 328 | +1 |
Commercial painting & coatings (#16), commercial cleaning & janitorial (#32) and commercial HVAC & mechanical (#35) rank best in Nashville. For those trades a program can work longer before it calls the same building twice, and fewer competitors have already pitched each owner.
Commercial electrical is the most crowded trade here, #84 of 100: 7.2 buyer sites for each of 328 local electrical contractors. Winning there takes a sharper reason to switch than a lower price.
Managed service providers (-31) and commercial HVAC & mechanical (-2) lost contractor establishments over the past year, so the same buildings are split among fewer firms than a year ago. Commercial landscaping (+65) and commercial cleaning & janitorial (+40) added them.
Open programs
Our availability workbook does not cover Nashville yet. We take one client per trade per territory, so ask before you plan around it.
Chapter 03 The projects
What is being built, and who owns the buildings
6 named, sourced projects and 6 anchor owners in Nashville-Davidson. Each one is a reason to call that has nothing to do with your company and everything to do with the buyer's building.
The projects
- 01 · about $2.2 billion New Nissan Stadium 75 percent complete as of March 2026, opening February 2027 A new stadium for the Tennessee Titans on Nashville's East Bank in Davidson County, with an ETFE roof, glass curtain wall and indoor/outdoor terraces. With the curtain wall and masonry nearly done and a daily average of 2,000 workers on site, the remaining months shift to interior trades: restroom tile, walk-in coolers, entry doors, electrical fit-out and finish work ahead of a February 2027 opening, followed by ongoing venue cleaning and maintenance. Nashville Scene, 2026-04-10
- 02 BNA Concourse A Reconstruction (New Horizon) Under demolition and reconstruction, opening July 2028 Nashville International Airport closed its existing Concourse A in September 2025 to demolish and rebuild it as a 16-gate concourse, the largest at BNA, with two moving walkways and indoor and outdoor passenger spaces. A full concourse rebuild through mid-2028 carries airport-grade mechanical, electrical and fire protection scopes, then concession and gate-area finishes, all phased around an operating airport. WSMV, 2025-09-23
- 03 · 495,000 sq ft Jim Ayers Tower at Vanderbilt University Medical Center First floor opened October 2025, completion expected early 2027 An expansion tower adjoining Vanderbilt University Hospital above 21st Avenue on the Medical Center campus in Nashville, planned for 180 to 187 inpatient beds across six inpatient floors plus radiology, specialty clinics and office space. Floors are opening in phases, so healthcare-grade HVAC, electrical, fire protection and flooring work continues floor by floor into 2027, and unfinished floors reserved for future beds point to more fit-out work later. Vanderbilt University Medical Center, 2026-05-07
- 04 Oracle Nashville Campus Demolition and site prep began February 2026, completion targeted for 2031 Oracle's planned campus on more than 70 acres in the River North area of Nashville's East Bank, including office buildings, a Nobu hotel and restaurant, a community medical clinic, a pedestrian bridge to Germantown and a riverfront greenway extension. Current work is demolition of warehouses and water and sewer line installation; the multi-year buildout that follows will need site paving, landscaping and full building trades across offices, a hotel and a clinic through 2031. The Tennessean (via Yahoo News), 2026-02-24
- 05 · 12MW, 102,500 sq ft RadiusDC Nashville I Data Center Broke ground September 2025, opening 2026 A colocation data center on about 12 acres in the Trinity Hills area of Nashville, built by DPR Construction with a closed-loop cooling system and enhanced cooling for higher-density deployments. A 12MW data hall depends on heavy electrical distribution, precision cooling and fire suppression, and once open it needs ongoing mechanical service and critical-environment cleaning. RadiusDC, 2025-09-04
- 06 · $69 million DENSO Lebanon Logistics Facility Announced January 2026, operations scheduled for spring 2027 A new 280,000 sq ft logistics facility at 1528 Sparta Pike in Lebanon, Wilson County, with advanced robotics and automation, expected to retain 100 jobs. A new build of this size brings roofing, slab and dock work, power for automation equipment, fire sprinklers and truck-court paving on a schedule aimed at spring 2027. Area Development, 2026-01-20
Projects current as of 2026-09; each source is linked on its card. Values are as reported by the source.
The anchor owners
Health systems, campuses, large employers and industrial parks hold the biggest concentrations of commercial buildings in Nashville-Davidson. One relationship with a facilities team here can cover many buildings.
Health system · Nashville, Davidson County
Vanderbilt University Medical Center
Wikipedia, citing VUMC's Quick Facts page, says that as of 2023 the health system had 1,741 licensed hospital beds and a workforce of 40,000.
The main campus on Medical Center Drive plus Vanderbilt Wilson County Hospital and clinics across Middle Tennessee carry heavy HVAC, electrical, life-safety and cleaning loads.
WikipediaCampus · Murfreesboro, Rutherford County
Middle Tennessee State University
MTSU says it has an enrollment of more than 20,000 students and is the largest locally governed university in Tennessee.
Classroom buildings, residence halls, athletic venues and large parking lots need cleaning, HVAC, grounds and paving work.
Middle Tennessee State UniversityCampus · Nashville, Davidson County
Vanderbilt University
Vanderbilt says its 340-acre campus, an accredited arboretum 1.5 miles from downtown, houses 11 schools and colleges.
A dense urban campus of academic buildings, residence halls and athletic facilities needs grounds care, roofing, painting and mechanical service.
Vanderbilt UniversityMajor employer · Smyrna, Rutherford County
Nissan Smyrna Vehicle Assembly Plant
Assembly Magazine reported in 2025 that the plant has more than 6-million-square-feet of production space, including body and paint shops, final assembly and a two-mile test track, on a site broken ground in 1981 on 778 acres.
A plant that Assembly Magazine calls one of the largest auto factories in the world has huge roof areas, process electrical and ventilation systems, sprinklers and miles of paved lots and roads.
Assembly MagazineIndustrial park · Lebanon, Wilson County
Speedway Industrial Park
WSMV reported in April 2025 that Amazon bought a building at Speedway Industrial Park on Richard Petty Way, built in 2023 on about 110 acres.
Large distribution buildings off I-840 share needs for truck-court paving, roofing, lighting and sprinkler service.
WSMVAirport · Nashville, Davidson County
Nashville International Airport (BNA)
WSMV reported that, according to the Metropolitan Nashville Airport Authority, BNA handled a record 26.7 million passengers in the fiscal year ending June 30, 2026, a 7.7% increase.
A terminal under a $3 billion expansion, plus garages, rental-car facilities and ramps, needs cleaning, HVAC, electrical and pavement work.
WSMVAnchor facts checked 2026-10; each source is linked on its card.
Which trades the work touches
| Trade | Projects and owners |
|---|---|
| Commercial HVAC & Mechanical | 10 |
| Commercial Electrical | 10 |
| Fire Protection | 7 |
| Commercial Cleaning & Janitorial | 6 |
| Paving & Asphalt | 6 |
| Commercial Flooring | 4 |
| Commercial Roofing | 4 |
| Commercial Landscaping | 3 |
| Commercial Construction | 3 |
| Commercial Painting & Coatings | 2 |
Chapter 04 The calendar
The Nashville selling calendar
Outbound runs every month, but the weather changes what a buyer wants to hear. These are the NOAA records for the Nashville-Davidson metro's counties, month by month.
| Measure | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hail and damaging wind reportstotal, 2015 to 2024 | 38 | 15 | 238 | 178 | 276 | 361 | 379 | 144 | 41 | 16 | 65 | 54 |
| Cooling degree daysaverage month | 3 | 2 | 15 | 22 | 131 | 291 | 409 | 374 | 197 | 38 | 2 | 1 |
| Heating degree daysaverage month | 844 | 652 | 495 | 219 | 72 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 207 | 499 | 748 |
| Average high (°F)average month | 48 | 52 | 61 | 71 | 79 | 86 | 89 | 88 | 83 | 72 | 60 | 51 |
NOAA logged 250 hail reports of 1 inch or larger and 1,555 damaging wind reports across the metro's counties from 2015 to 2024: #17 of 100 markets for hail and #7 for wind. May, June and July carried 56% of the reports. Storm calls are a real door-opener here, and the contractor who is already known before the season gets the inspection.
The metro averages 1,483 cooling degree days a year (#35 of 97 markets) and 3,764 heating degree days (#51 of 97). Cooling load peaks in June, July and August; heating in January, February, March, November and December. Peak months are when HVAC calls lead with service and response times; the rest of the year they lead with planned work and budgets.
9 months average a high of 60°F or more (March, April, May, June, July, August, September, October and November). That is when exterior painting, paving and landscaping crews are busiest, so in-season calls catch owners while they can see the work that needs doing. The contracts themselves are bid on each property's own dates, so the selling runs all year.
Trades with no weather season
Cleaning, construction, electrical, flooring and fire protection sell on contract end dates, budgets and inspection cycles. Learn each account's date on the first call and come back before it.
Roofing demand spikes after hail and wind events, when owners want an inspection and documentation for their insurer, so be the known contractor before the storm, not one of many calling after it. Planned work follows each owner's budget: inspections feed capital requests, and replacements are approved ahead of installation. Outbound runs every month, keyed to each building's roof age and budget date.
Chapter 05 The numbers
What one meeting takes, trade by trade
What booking a meeting has taken on our own calling floor for the trades we run in Nashville, next to the records we can prospect here. The sales center figures are national; it does not break them out by city yet.
| Trade | Dials per appointment | Reached proposal | Proposals won | Dials for 10 meetings |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire ProtectionFastest to book | 78 | 21.6% | 13.2% | about 780 |
| Paving & Asphalt | 86 | 32.2% | 7.4% | about 860 |
| Commercial Landscaping | 88 | 18.8% | 12.7% | about 880 |
| Commercial Electrical | 96 | 14.6% | 21.1% | about 960 |
| Commercial HVAC & Mechanical | 98 | 16.6% | 24.9% | about 980 |
| Commercial Painting & Coatings | 115 | 31.2% | 14.4% | about 1,150 |
| Commercial Flooring | 122 | 30.8% | 9.8% | about 1,220 |
| Commercial Roofing | 140 | 25.9% | 16.1% | about 1,400 |
| Commercial Cleaning & Janitorial | 142 | 23.9% | 21.7% | about 1,420 |
| Managed Service Providers | 162 | 10.0% | 20.5% | about 1,620 |
All of these trades together: 122 dials per appointment
The records behind a Nashville program
Before a program starts we size the list: the decision-maker records Abstrakt can prospect for each trade in the Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro territory.
- 4,978Commercial Roofing
- 4,978Commercial Construction
- 2,031Commercial HVAC & Mechanical
- 1,466Commercial Cleaning & Janitorial
Source: Abstrakt territory record counts, as of October 2026: estimated decision-maker records Abstrakt can prospect for each program in the territory. Shown for the programs the count covers.
Read it this way
Divide the records by the dials one meeting takes and you see how long a list lasts before it repeats. A thin list means a program has to work every record well, not just call more.
Chapter 06 Build or buy
What an in-house SDR costs in Nashville
Before you hire a sales development rep in Nashville, price the whole job, not just the salary.
The salary is the smallest part of the decision. About 9,370 people hold the role in the Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN metro, and every one of their employers is competing for the same hires.
| Cost | Year one |
|---|---|
| Base salary | $55,000 |
| Commission and bonus | $15,000 |
| Payroll taxes and benefits (25% of pay) | $17,500 |
| Tools and data ($550 a month) | $6,600 |
| Recruiting and training | $7,000 |
| Turnover (35% a year, rehiring) | $2,450 |
| Manager and QA time (5 hours a week) and admin (4 hours a month) | $21,150 |
| Total, before ramp time | $124,700 |
Headcount: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS), May 2025. Sales representatives of services, except advertising, insurance, financial services and travel (SOC 41-3091). The cost lines are the starting values of our SDR cost calculator: $15,000 commission, 25% payroll taxes and benefits, $550 a month in tools, $7,000 recruiting and training, 35% yearly turnover, and manager, QA and admin time. Change any of them there.
$124,700
for one in-house SDR's first year at a $55,000 base salary.
That buys one rep. It does not buy the list, the manager's coaching system or cover when the rep leaves.
Part two Apply this
The Nashville market toolkit
4 working tools built from the chapters above. Tick the boxes as you go (they stay ticked in this browser), copy the scripts into your CRM, or save the whole guide as a PDF and print this part as a worksheet.
Tool 01
Account scorecard
Before an account goes on the call list, check every line that fits. Call the accounts with the most ticks first, and leave the ones with none for later.
Tool 02
Discovery question bank
Ask fewer, better questions. Pick three or four for the call and save the rest for the meeting. Each one comes with the reason it earns its place.
Restaurants: 1,787 sites here
From our fire protection talk track. Staying open and passing inspection. Multi-unit operators are worth more than single locations.
- When was your hood suppression system last inspected, and when is the next one due?Due dates tell you when to call and what to offer.
- Have you had a failed inspection or a citation recently?Failed inspections threaten the ability to stay open and create urgency.
- How many locations do you operate, and does each one use a different vendor?Multi-unit operators are more valuable and often want one vendor across locations.
Retail stores: 1,085 sites here
From our painting talk track. Night work that does not close the store. Chains often run repaints as multi-site programs from regional facilities.
- Is painting bought store by store or through a regional or national remodel program?Program work needs a different contact and often a vendor registration process.
- Can the work be done overnight without closing the store?Night work capability is often the deciding factor for retail painting.
- Are remodels, brand refreshes or new stores planned in this area?Planned programs give you a timeline and a defined scope.
Medical, dental and outpatient offices: 640 sites here
From our cleaning talk track. Infection control and documentation. Ask how they verify what the crew did last night.
- Who cleans the practice now, and when does that agreement end or renew?The end date tells you whether this is a proposal now or a walkthrough scheduled ahead of the renewal.
- What did your last infection-control review or patient complaint flag about cleaning?A specific finding gives you the reason to change and the standard your proposal has to answer.
- Which rooms need terminal cleaning after procedures, and which just need routine nightly service?This separates the scope that needs trained, documented crews from general janitorial and shapes pricing.
Any first meeting
Plain practice that works in every market.
- How are you handling this today, and what would you change about it?The gap between today and what they want is the whole reason to meet.
- What happens if nothing changes this year?Tells you whether there is a cost to waiting, or only curiosity.
- Who else would need to agree before anything moves?Names the people who can stall the deal, while you can still invite them.
- When does the current contract or budget come up for review?Gives you the date to plan around, even when the answer today is no.
- What would make a first meeting worth your time?Lets the buyer set the agenda, which is the agenda they will show up for.
Tool 03
Trigger watchlist
Each of these changes gives a buyer a reason to take the call this month instead of next year. Tick the ones you will track, and set a news alert or CRM field for each so you hear about it first.
Tool 04
30-day action plan
4 weeks, 15 steps, nothing you need to buy. Tick each one off as you finish it; your progress stays in this browser.
Week 1Draw the territory
Week 2Check the rules, then write the talk track
Week 3Make the calls
Week 4Measure and decide
Sources and notes
- U.S. Census Bureau, County Business Patterns 2023: business sites by category, size and county, Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN.
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, private ownership, 2026 Q1: contractor establishments, one-year change and concentration (location quotient).
- Projects: named public sources linked on each card, current as of 2026-09.
- Anchor owners: sources linked on each card, checked 2026-10.
- NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, 2015 to 2024: hail and damaging wind reports by month across the metro's counties.
- NOAA NCEI nClimDiv county monthly series, 1991-2020 averages: degree days and average highs by month.
- Abstrakt sales center, Performance Intelligence, national, as of October 2026: dials, appointments, proposals and wins by trade. Method.
- Abstrakt territory record counts, as of October 2026: decision-maker records per program in the Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro territory.
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS), May 2025: Sales representatives of services, except advertising, insurance, financial services and travel (SOC 41-3091).
- The toolkit's discovery questions come from our trade talk tracks; the plan and checklists are sales practice, not data.
