Market report · San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA
The State of Outbound Sales in San Francisco, 2026
How outbound selling looks across the San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA metro right now: who the buyers are, which trades have room, what is being built, what a rep costs to hire here. Then a 4-tool kit to work the market this month.
- 9,941business sites with 20+ people across the categories trades sell to, #14 of our 100 metros
- 108buyer sites per commercial painting contractor, #3 of 86 markets: the best rank of any trade here
Sites: U.S. Census Bureau, County Business Patterns 2023; rank among the 100 metros on our market pages. Room: U.S. Census Bureau, County Business Patterns 2023 sites per contractor in U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, private ownership, 2026 Q1, among markets with at least 10 contractors.
Executive summary Read this if nothing else
5 things to know about outbound sales in San Francisco
Biggest buyer pool
Restaurants: 3,062 sites
with 20 or more people, the largest buyer category in San Francisco-Oakland, ahead of retail stores (2,148).
Where the metro leans
Apartment and residential property managers: 1.21x the U.S. mix
The one category that stands out against the national mix. Trades that serve it have more of these buyers here than average.
Most room
Commercial Painting & Coatings: #3 of 86 markets
108 buyer sites with 20+ people for each of 60 local commercial painting contractors. The most crowded is managed service providers, #72 of 100.
Biggest reason to call
UCSF Health Helen Diller Hospital, Parnassus Heights
Under construction (structural steel), completion expected 2029. One of 5 named, sourced projects in this report.
Hiring locally
$124,700 for an in-house SDR's first year (illustrative)
At a $55,000 base salary, once commission, payroll taxes and benefits, tools, recruiting and training, turnover and manager time are added, before ramp time.
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, County Business Patterns 2023; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, private ownership, 2026 Q1; project sources as of 2026-09; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS), May 2025. Full list at the end.
Chapter 01 The market
Who buys in San Francisco-Oakland
9,941 business sites in San Francisco-Oakland have 20 or more people on site in the categories commercial trades sell to. That ranks #14 of the 100 metros we publish. Here is what those buyers are and where they sit.
The largest buyer categories
Sites with 20 or more people are the ones worth an SDR's time: big enough to have a facility lead, a service budget and a contract that comes up for renewal. The "vs. U.S. mix" column compares each category's share of local employment with its national share (1.00x is the U.S. average).
| Category | Sites with 20+ | All sites | vs. U.S. mix | 1-yr change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RestaurantsLargest pool | 3,062 | 12,900 | 0.91x | +422 |
| Retail stores | 2,148 | 12,038 | 0.55x | -46 |
| Medical, dental and outpatient offices | 1,089 | 11,176 | 0.80x | +655 |
| Manufacturing plants | 842 | 3,398 | 0.55x | +2 |
| Wholesale distributors | 788 | 5,144 | 0.43x | +5 |
| Grocery stores | 542 | 2,374 | 0.79x | +22 |
| Senior living and nursing | 408 | 1,448 | 0.81x | +49 |
| Private K-12 schools | 284 | 445 | 1.01x | +3 |
| Hotels | 270 | 709 | 0.63x | +11 |
| Bank and credit union offices | 256 | 2,202 | 0.50x | -22 |
San Francisco-Oakland leans toward apartment and residential property managers (1.21x). A trade that already sells to those buyers elsewhere has a deeper pool here than the national numbers suggest, and a case study from one of them travels well on the phone.
It is thinner than the U.S. mix in golf courses and country clubs (0.29x) and colleges and universities (0.33x). A program built around those buyers runs out of fresh accounts sooner here.
Growing fastest over the past year, by establishment count: medical, dental and outpatient offices (+655), restaurants (+422) and apartment and residential property managers (+125). New sites have no incumbent vendor yet.
The metro
San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA: 5 counties in this report's counts.
Alameda County, San Francisco County and Contra Costa County hold 77% of the larger business sites, so most programs start there.
Where the sites are
| County | Sites with 20+ | Share of metro |
|---|---|---|
| Alameda CountyStart here | 3,681 | 37% |
| San Francisco County | 2,117 | 21% |
| Contra Costa County | 1,843 | 19% |
| San Mateo County | 1,575 | 16% |
| Marin County | 592 | 6% |
Chapter 02 The competition
Which trades have the most room in San Francisco
Buyer sites per contractor is a rough read on how crowded a trade is: more sites for each local competitor means more doors nobody else is knocking on. Each trade's San Francisco figure is ranked against the other markets we track.
| Trade | Rank among markets | Sites per contractor | Contractors | 1-yr change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial Painting & CoatingsMost room | #3 of 86 | 108 | 60 | +1 |
| Paving & Asphalt | #4 of 94 | 79 | 79 | -2 |
| Commercial Roofing | #4 of 89 | 151 | 41 | +2 |
| Commercial Flooring | #4 of 68 | 142 | 32 | -2 |
| Commercial Electrical | #14 of 100 | 14 | 361 | +18 |
| Commercial Landscaping | #14 of 100 | 5.3 | 1,237 | +44 |
| Commercial HVAC & Mechanical | #20 of 100 | 13 | 286 | +7 |
| Fire Protection | #24 of 96 | 55 | 123 | +3 |
| Commercial Construction | #28 of 100 | 5.8 | 570 | +1 |
| Commercial Cleaning & Janitorial | #60 of 100 | 3.5 | 1,211 | +41 |
| Managed Service Providers | #72 of 100 | 2.1 | 3,002 | +236 |
Commercial painting & coatings (#3), paving & asphalt (#4) and commercial roofing (#4) rank best in San Francisco. For those trades a program can work longer before it calls the same building twice, and fewer competitors have already pitched each owner.
Managed service providers is the most crowded trade here, #72 of 100: 2.1 buyer sites for each of 3,002 local managed service providers. Winning there takes a sharper reason to switch than a lower price.
Paving & asphalt (-2) and commercial flooring (-2) lost contractor establishments over the past year, so the same buildings are split among fewer firms than a year ago. Managed service providers (+236) and commercial landscaping (+44) added them.
Open programs
Our availability workbook does not cover San Francisco yet. We take one client per trade per territory, so ask before you plan around it.
Chapter 03 The projects
What is being built, and who owns the buildings
5 named, sourced projects and 6 anchor owners in San Francisco-Oakland. Each one is a reason to call that has nothing to do with your company and everything to do with the buyer's building.
The projects
- 01 UCSF Health Helen Diller Hospital, Parnassus Heights Under construction (structural steel), completion expected 2029 A 15-story hospital under construction at UCSF's Parnassus Heights campus in San Francisco, with first patients planned for 2030. Structural steel and concrete work runs through summer 2027, after which mechanical, electrical and fire protection rough-in ramps up, followed by interior finishes and healthcare cleaning ahead of 2030 activation. UCSF Real Estate, 2026-05-28
- 02 UCSF Benioff Children's Hospital Oakland New Hospital Building Under construction, completion expected 2031 A seismic replacement hospital building at UCSF Benioff Children's Hospital Oakland with an expanded emergency department, behavioral health beds, new operating rooms and a private-room NICU; the 31,300 sq ft Temescal Hall office building on the campus finished in September 2026. A multi-year hospital build in Oakland creates mechanical, electrical and fire protection scopes now and interior finish, flooring and painting packages toward the 2031 completion. UCSF Real Estate, 2026-09
- 03 · 623,000 sq ft Kaiser Permanente San Francisco hospital replacement (Geary and Divisadero) Plans filed with the city 2026; construction start targeted late 2028 A proposed 14-story, all-electric hospital with 300 private beds across from Kaiser's existing Geary Boulevard medical center in San Francisco, plus a medical office building and two parking garages. This is a long-lead pipeline item: entitlement runs into 2028, then an all-electric hospital means heavy electrical and HVAC scopes, and conversion of the old hospital to medical offices adds later renovation work. SFist (citing San Francisco Chronicle), 2026-04-21
- 04 Innovative Genomics Institute-Bakar Labs Building, UC Berkeley Under construction (broke ground July 1, 2026) A research and startup lab building at Oxford Street and University Avenue in Berkeley for CRISPR-based genomics research and Bakar Labs biotech companies, built by Turner Construction. Wet labs carry dense HVAC, exhaust and electrical requirements plus fire protection, and finished lab space needs specialty flooring and recurring lab cleaning contracts. California Construction News, 2026-07-06
- 05 · 99 megawatts AVAIO Digital Pittsburg data center (Phase One) Phase One under construction; two more phases planned A data center on the former Delta View Golf Course site along West Leland Road in Pittsburg, Contra Costa County, with a first phase of 99 megawatts and potential expansion to 500 megawatts. Data center phases bring large electrical, cooling and fire suppression packages, and the 76-acre site adds paving and landscaping; opposition and a pending lawsuit could affect later phases. CBS San Francisco, 2026-07-20
Projects current as of 2026-09; each source is linked on its card. Values are as reported by the source.
The anchor owners
Health systems, campuses, large employers and industrial parks hold the biggest concentrations of commercial buildings in San Francisco-Oakland. One relationship with a facilities team here can cover many buildings.
Health system · Oakland, Alameda County
Kaiser Permanente Northern California
Kaiser Permanente says its Northern California region, headquartered in Oakland, has 21 hospitals, 91,154 employees and 4.7 million members.
Hospitals and medical office buildings across the East Bay, San Francisco and the Peninsula give one owner a long list of facilities needing HVAC, life-safety, cleaning and flooring work.
Kaiser PermanenteCampus · Berkeley, Alameda County
University of California, Berkeley
The Daily Californian reports UC Berkeley enrolled more than 46,000 students in fall 2025 for the first time in campus history.
A dense campus of older and new academic, lab and housing buildings carries steady mechanical, roofing, painting and cleaning work.
The Daily CalifornianMajor employer · San Francisco, San Francisco County
Salesforce
The San Francisco Standard calls Salesforce the city's largest private employer and says it occupies multiple buildings in SoMa, including Salesforce Tower.
Multiple downtown office buildings with heavy daily occupancy need janitorial, HVAC, electrical and interior finish work.
The San Francisco StandardMajor employer · Richmond, Contra Costa County
Chevron Richmond Refinery
Chevron says Chevron Richmond was established in 1902 and produces gasoline, jet fuel, diesel and lubricating oils.
A large refinery site with process units, tank farms, shops and office buildings carries electrical, fire protection, painting and paving work.
Chevron RichmondAirport · San Mateo County (unincorporated, south of San Francisco)
San Francisco International Airport (SFO)
The Mercury News reports SFO handled 54.53 million passengers in 2025, up 4.3% from 52.29 million in 2024.
Terminals, garages, the rental car center and airfield support buildings need cleaning, HVAC, electrical and pavement work.
The Mercury NewsLogistics hub · Oakland, Alameda County
Port of Oakland
The Port of Oakland says it handled 1,114,665 TEUs through the first six months of 2026, 2.5% below the same period last year.
Marine terminals, container yards and the warehouses and transload buildings around them need paving, roofing, electrical and fire protection work.
Port of OaklandAnchor facts checked 2026-10; each source is linked on its card.
Which trades the work touches
| Trade | Projects and owners |
|---|---|
| Commercial Electrical | 10 |
| Commercial HVAC & Mechanical | 9 |
| Fire Protection | 8 |
| Commercial Cleaning & Janitorial | 6 |
| Commercial Flooring | 5 |
| Paving & Asphalt | 4 |
| Commercial Painting & Coatings | 3 |
| Commercial Roofing | 2 |
| Commercial Landscaping | 1 |
| Commercial Construction | 1 |
Chapter 04 The calendar
The San Francisco selling calendar
Outbound runs every month, but the weather changes what a buyer wants to hear. These are the NOAA records for the San Francisco-Oakland metro's counties, month by month.
| Measure | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hail and damaging wind reportstotal, 2015 to 2024 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Cooling degree daysaverage month | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 53 | 91 | 99 | 83 | 25 | 0 | 0 |
| Heating degree daysaverage month | 485 | 380 | 354 | 283 | 194 | 98 | 57 | 46 | 53 | 124 | 316 | 487 |
| Average high (°F)average month | 57 | 59 | 62 | 65 | 69 | 74 | 77 | 78 | 77 | 72 | 63 | 57 |
NOAA logged 0 hail reports of 1 inch or larger and 13 damaging wind reports across the metro's counties from 2015 to 2024: #96 of 100 markets for hail and #89 for wind. January, August and December carried 85% of the reports. Storms are not the main driver here, so roof age, leaks and budget timing carry the roofing conversation.
The metro averages 376 cooling degree days a year (#90 of 97 markets) and 2,876 heating degree days (#71 of 97). Cooling load peaks in June, July, August and September; heating in January, February, March, April, November and December. Peak months are when HVAC calls lead with service and response times; the rest of the year they lead with planned work and budgets.
9 months average a high of 60°F or more (March, April, May, June, July, August, September, October and November). That is when exterior painting, paving and landscaping crews are busiest, so in-season calls catch owners while they can see the work that needs doing. The contracts themselves are bid on each property's own dates, so the selling runs all year.
Trades with no weather season
Cleaning, construction, electrical, flooring and fire protection sell on contract end dates, budgets and inspection cycles. Learn each account's date on the first call and come back before it.
Chapter 05 The numbers
What one meeting takes, trade by trade
What booking a meeting has taken on our own calling floor for the trades we run in San Francisco, next to the records we can prospect here. The sales center figures are national; it does not break them out by city yet.
| Trade | Dials per appointment | Reached proposal | Proposals won | Dials for 10 meetings |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire ProtectionFastest to book | 78 | 21.6% | 13.2% | about 780 |
| Paving & Asphalt | 86 | 32.2% | 7.4% | about 860 |
| Commercial Landscaping | 88 | 18.8% | 12.7% | about 880 |
| Commercial Electrical | 96 | 14.6% | 21.1% | about 960 |
| Commercial HVAC & Mechanical | 98 | 16.6% | 24.9% | about 980 |
| Commercial Painting & Coatings | 115 | 31.2% | 14.4% | about 1,150 |
| Commercial Flooring | 122 | 30.8% | 9.8% | about 1,220 |
| Commercial Roofing | 140 | 25.9% | 16.1% | about 1,400 |
| Commercial Cleaning & Janitorial | 142 | 23.9% | 21.7% | about 1,420 |
| Managed Service Providers | 162 | 10.0% | 20.5% | about 1,620 |
All of these trades together: 122 dials per appointment
The records behind a San Francisco program
Before a program starts we size the list: the decision-maker records Abstrakt can prospect for each trade in the 2 Abstrakt territories territory.
- 12,683Commercial Roofing
- 12,683Commercial Construction
- 5,014Commercial HVAC & Mechanical
- 3,714Commercial Cleaning & Janitorial
Source: Abstrakt territory record counts, as of October 2026: estimated decision-maker records Abstrakt can prospect for each program in the territory. Shown for the programs the count covers.
Read it this way
Divide the records by the dials one meeting takes and you see how long a list lasts before it repeats. A thin list means a program has to work every record well, not just call more.
Chapter 06 Build or buy
What an in-house SDR costs in San Francisco
Before you hire a sales development rep in San Francisco, price the whole job, not just the salary.
The salary is the smallest part of the decision. About 29,980 people hold the role in the San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA metro, and every one of their employers is competing for the same hires.
| Cost | Year one |
|---|---|
| Base salary | $55,000 |
| Commission and bonus | $15,000 |
| Payroll taxes and benefits (25% of pay) | $17,500 |
| Tools and data ($550 a month) | $6,600 |
| Recruiting and training | $7,000 |
| Turnover (35% a year, rehiring) | $2,450 |
| Manager and QA time (5 hours a week) and admin (4 hours a month) | $21,150 |
| Total, before ramp time | $124,700 |
Headcount: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS), May 2025. Sales representatives of services, except advertising, insurance, financial services and travel (SOC 41-3091). The cost lines are the starting values of our SDR cost calculator: $15,000 commission, 25% payroll taxes and benefits, $550 a month in tools, $7,000 recruiting and training, 35% yearly turnover, and manager, QA and admin time. Change any of them there.
$124,700
for one in-house SDR's first year at a $55,000 base salary.
That buys one rep. It does not buy the list, the manager's coaching system or cover when the rep leaves.
Part two Apply this
The San Francisco market toolkit
4 working tools built from the chapters above. Tick the boxes as you go (they stay ticked in this browser), copy the scripts into your CRM, or save the whole guide as a PDF and print this part as a worksheet.
Tool 01
Account scorecard
Before an account goes on the call list, check every line that fits. Call the accounts with the most ticks first, and leave the ones with none for later.
Tool 02
Discovery question bank
Ask fewer, better questions. Pick three or four for the call and save the rest for the meeting. Each one comes with the reason it earns its place.
Restaurants: 3,062 sites here
From our fire protection talk track. Staying open and passing inspection. Multi-unit operators are worth more than single locations.
- When was your hood suppression system last inspected, and when is the next one due?Due dates tell you when to call and what to offer.
- Have you had a failed inspection or a citation recently?Failed inspections threaten the ability to stay open and create urgency.
- How many locations do you operate, and does each one use a different vendor?Multi-unit operators are more valuable and often want one vendor across locations.
Retail stores: 2,148 sites here
From our painting talk track. Night work that does not close the store. Chains often run repaints as multi-site programs from regional facilities.
- Is painting bought store by store or through a regional or national remodel program?Program work needs a different contact and often a vendor registration process.
- Can the work be done overnight without closing the store?Night work capability is often the deciding factor for retail painting.
- Are remodels, brand refreshes or new stores planned in this area?Planned programs give you a timeline and a defined scope.
Medical, dental and outpatient offices: 1,089 sites here
From our paving talk track. Patient safety and accessibility. Many practices lease, so the landlord or property manager is often the buyer.
- Does the practice lease the building, and if so, who manages the lot?Many practices lease, so this tells you whether the landlord or property manager is the real buyer.
- Have patients mentioned trip hazards, potholes or trouble with accessible parking?Patient safety concerns and accessibility issues drive action quickly at medical offices.
- Are your accessible spaces, ramps and curb cuts in good condition and up to current requirements?Accessibility updates are a common, well-defined scope for paving and concrete work.
Any first meeting
Plain practice that works in every market.
- How are you handling this today, and what would you change about it?The gap between today and what they want is the whole reason to meet.
- What happens if nothing changes this year?Tells you whether there is a cost to waiting, or only curiosity.
- Who else would need to agree before anything moves?Names the people who can stall the deal, while you can still invite them.
- When does the current contract or budget come up for review?Gives you the date to plan around, even when the answer today is no.
- What would make a first meeting worth your time?Lets the buyer set the agenda, which is the agenda they will show up for.
Tool 03
Trigger watchlist
Each of these changes gives a buyer a reason to take the call this month instead of next year. Tick the ones you will track, and set a news alert or CRM field for each so you hear about it first.
Tool 04
30-day action plan
4 weeks, 15 steps, nothing you need to buy. Tick each one off as you finish it; your progress stays in this browser.
Week 1Draw the territory
Week 2Check the rules, then write the talk track
Week 3Make the calls
Week 4Measure and decide
Sources and notes
- U.S. Census Bureau, County Business Patterns 2023: business sites by category, size and county, San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA.
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, private ownership, 2026 Q1: contractor establishments, one-year change and concentration (location quotient).
- Projects: named public sources linked on each card, current as of 2026-09.
- Anchor owners: sources linked on each card, checked 2026-10.
- NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, 2015 to 2024: hail and damaging wind reports by month across the metro's counties.
- NOAA NCEI nClimDiv county monthly series, 1991-2020 averages: degree days and average highs by month.
- Abstrakt sales center, Performance Intelligence, national, as of October 2026: dials, appointments, proposals and wins by trade. Method.
- Abstrakt territory record counts, as of October 2026: decision-maker records per program in the 2 Abstrakt territories territory.
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS), May 2025: Sales representatives of services, except advertising, insurance, financial services and travel (SOC 41-3091).
- The toolkit's discovery questions come from our trade talk tracks; the plan and checklists are sales practice, not data.
