Two HVAC companies walk into the job market: the first posts their role in Phoenix, the second in Pittsburgh. Both offer the same $35–45 per hour, identical benefits, and similar opportunities for additional earnings. The punchline? One’s drowning in applicants while the other’s still waiting for a single qualified resume to hit their inbox.
Any seasoned HVAC leader will tell you that each company is going to have completely different results, but why? What factors drive these disparities, and what can HVAC leaders do to generate consistent results in such a competitive and uneven talent market?
To understand what’s really happening, it helps to start with the national baseline for HVAC employment, the big-picture numbers that paint how strong the industry looks on paper before you zoom into the local realities.
Contents
- 1 The National Baseline
- 2 Regional Differences: The Five Forces Shaping Local HVAC Talent Pools
- 3 Climate & Seasonal Demand – Deep Dive
- 4 Construction & Housing Cycles – Deep Dive
- 5 Licensing, Training & Apprenticeship Pipelines – Deep Dive
- 6 Union Density & Labor Laws – Deep Dive
- 7 Cost of Living & Pay Expectations – Deep Dive
- 8 Conclusion
The National Baseline
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), HVAC mechanics and installers earn a median income of $59,810 as of May 2024. Over the next ten years, employment in the field is projected to grow by 8%, translating to roughly 40,100 job openings each year across the United States.
At first glance, the HVAC job market could be labeled as “healthy”, and in many ways, it is. However, it hides a fundamental truth: where you hire matters as much as who you hire. The same role that could be filled within days in Texas might sit open for months in New England, even when pay and benefits are identical.
These differences are shaped by climate, construction cycles, licensing requirements, union density, and cost of living. Understanding how these local variables impact hiring helps HVAC leaders make smarter decisions, highlight their company’s strengths, and attract the right talent faster.
Regional Differences: The Five Forces Shaping Local HVAC Talent Pools
If HVAC recruiting were purely about wages, then hiring would be simple. Out-pay your competitor, and you win the technician. But any HVAC leader who has tried that strategy knows it’s not that easy. Every market is governed by its own local economics, workforce makeup, and environmental realities.
These five factors determine how deep or shallow your talent pool is in any given region:
- Climate and Seasonal Demand – Weather shapes this industry. States with extreme heat or cold face continuous system stress, creating nonstop demand for service technicians. These conditions also influence compensation expectations. Technicians in hotter markets often seek lucrative overtime opportunities during the summer, while techs in colder climates value year-round stability.
- Construction and Housing Cycles – Labor demand for HVAC technicians mirrors the building permit curve. When construction slows, techs pivot to maintenance and service work, causing competition for steady hours. In high-growth regions like Texas and the Carolinas, continuous development sustains heavy installer demand year-round.
- Licensing, Training, and Apprenticeship Pipelines – Each state sets its own licensing rules, from EPA certifications to contractor-specific credentials. The number and quality of local training outlets, community colleges, union programs, or employer-led apprenticeships directly affect the available labor pool. States like Ohio and Pennsylvania, with robust trade education networks, enjoy more predictable pipelines.
- Union Density and Labor Laws – Unionized regions like Chicago, Boston, and parts of California operate differently from right-to-work states. In union markets, wage floors, standardized training, and seniority systems are well established, which can make hiring both more structured and more competitive.
- Cost of Living and Pay Expectations – The same hourly rate stretches very differently from one region to another. The highest-paying markets, such as the District of Columbia, Alaska, and Hawaii, average between $74,660 and $71,310, while lower-paying states like Arkansas, Mississippi, and Florida average closer to $50,000–$46,000. Smart employers adjust compensation to local conditions, adding tool stipends, sign-on bonuses, or profit sharing to stay competitive.
Climate & Seasonal Demand – Deep Dive
If there’s one variable that dictates HVAC hiring cycles, it’s the weather. Climate doesn’t just spark customer demand, it reshapes the entire labor market.
The United States can be divided into two broad categories: cooling-dominant and heating-dominant markets. The distinction, measured by Heating and Cooling Degree Days (HDD/CDD), tells us how much energy a region typically needs for heating or cooling throughout the year.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA):
- Sun Belt states like Arizona, Texas, Florida, and Nevada record over 3,000 Cooling Degree Days (CDD) annually, meaning temperatures frequently exceed 65°F.
- Northern states such as Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Massachusetts log 5,000–7,000 Heating Degree Days (HDD), indicating prolonged cold seasons and heavy heating demand.
What Does This Mean for Hiring?
- In cooling-dominant climates, labor demand peaks in late spring and summer. Companies in markets like Phoenix or Dallas ramp up hiring between March and May, offering retention bonuses and overtime to stay fully staffed.
- In heating-dominant markets, demand surges in fall and winter. Markets like Boston, Chicago, and Pittsburgh begin recruitment efforts in late summer to onboard techs before the first cold snap.
Seasonality Affects Availability
These seasonal peaks also dictate technician availability. Many HVAC professionals operate as seasonal contractors, shifting between residential and commercial work to stay busy. Milder markets like Tennessee or Kentucky enjoy more balanced year-round activity, which reduces layoffs and strengthens retention.
Recruiting Implications
- Start early. Hire 60–90 days ahead of your busiest period to beat the competition.
- Tailor incentives. In hot climates, overtime and seasonal bonuses attract top performers. In colder markets, highlight stability and consistent hours.
- Market your climate. Technicians relocate for the right balance of pay, stability, and workload; use that to your advantage in job postings.
Construction & Housing Cycles – Deep Dive
The HVAC labor market doesn’t move in a vacuum; it rides the tides of construction. New housing starts, commercial projects, and remodeling activity all influence demand for installers, apprentices, and project leads.
According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2024 Annual Building Permits Survey, roughly 1.48 million new privately-owned housing units were authorized across the U.S. in 2024, a 2.2% decline from 2023. Yet total valuation remained strong at $384 billion, reflecting larger, higher-value builds.
Regional Construction Trends
- Texas remains the nation’s leader, with over 70,000 new housing units authorized in the Dallas–Fort Worth–Arlington area alone.
- Phoenix, AZ, continues steady expansion driven by suburban sprawl and commercial growth.
- Pittsburgh, PA, represents the opposite end, moderate new construction, but strong retrofit demand due to older housing stock.
Recruiting Implications
- Monitor permits: Permitting data provides a 3–9 month lead time for installer demand.
- Balance roles: Maintain a flexible workforce that can pivot between install and service work depending on the market.
- Partner locally: Builders, general contractors, and developers can serve as long-term forecasting allies.
Key takeaway: Construction cycles act as the heartbeat of HVAC labor demand. When cranes rise, installer competition spikes. When permits slow, service work becomes the lifeline.
Licensing, Training & Apprenticeship Pipelines – Deep Dive
Every HVAC technician starts somewhere, but where they start depends on their state’s infrastructure. Licensing and training requirements vary widely, which directly impacts the size and quality of the available workforce.
Licensing Requirements
- Texas requires a state contractor license and validated work experience, but offers flexibility for apprentices under supervision.
- Pennsylvania delegates HVAC licensing to municipalities, leading to inconsistent regional standards.
- Massachusetts and Illinois include electrical and refrigeration licensing layers, extending the training timeline and reducing the number of fully licensed techs.
Training and Apprenticeship Systems
The U.S. Department of Labor lists more than 3,000 registered HVAC apprenticeships nationwide, though the density varies sharply by region.
- Ohio, Pennsylvania, and California boast strong community-college and union programs that reliably produce new journeymen each year.
- Southeastern states, such as Georgia and Florida, depend more heavily on employer-sponsored programs and trade schools.
Forward-thinking companies are filling these gaps by building their own pipelines: sponsoring NATE certifications, partnering with technical schools, or funding tool allowances for new apprentices.
Recruiting Implications
- Offer paid apprenticeships: Paid training remains one of the strongest hiring incentives for entry-level candidates.
- Show career paths: Technicians are more likely to stay when they can see a future beyond their current role.
- Certify internally: Sponsoring certifications like NATE or CHP-5 improves retention and elevates company reputation.
Key takeaway: States with structured apprenticeship and training pipelines enjoy deeper talent pools and shorter hiring cycles. In others, companies must build their own path to fill the gap.
Union Density & Labor Laws – Deep Dive
Unionization remains one of the most defining (and polarizing) variables in local HVAC markets. It influences everything from wage floors and benefits to training standards and recruiting competition.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ 2024 Union Membership Summary, union membership nationwide stands at 9.9%, but this figure varies dramatically by region:
- Middle Atlantic and Pacific states (e.g., New York, Illinois, California) report rates above 12%.
- Southern and Mountain regions (e.g., Texas, Florida, Arizona) often fall below 5%.
Union Market Dynamics
- In union-heavy metros such as Chicago, Boston, and San Francisco, pay rates are standardized, career ladders are well defined, and apprenticeships are managed through joint labor–management programs. These regions offer predictable skill levels but less flexibility in hiring and wage negotiation.
- In right-to-work states like Texas, Georgia, and North Carolina, fewer restrictions exist. Employers have greater control over wages and work rules, but must often shoulder training costs themselves.
Recruiting Implications
- In union markets: Compete through culture and opportunity. Highlight training, leadership development, and advanced technology exposure rather than just the hourly rate.
- In right-to-work states: Differentiate through pay-for-performance, bonuses, or flexible schedules. Benefits packages can offset the lack of union benefits.
- For multi-state employers: Tailor job descriptions to match local norms. A “competitive wage” in Chicago means something very different than in Dallas.
Key takeaway: Union density shapes everything, from pay scales to pipelines. Know the rules of your region before setting your recruiting budget or job ad strategy.
Cost of Living & Pay Expectations – Deep Dive
The cost of living gap across the U.S. can make or break your recruiting success. Offering $40 an hour might attract dozens of applicants in one market and none in another.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (May 2024 OEWS) shows that HVAC wages can vary by more than 30% between the highest and lowest states. At the top end, the District of Columbia, Alaska, and Hawaii average annual wages between $71K–$75K, while Arkansas, Mississippi, and Florida fall between $46K–$50K.
But raw wages only tell half the story. Cost-of-living indices show that what feels like a high wage in one city might barely cover essentials in another. For example:
- A $70,000 salary in Honolulu provides roughly the same purchasing power as $52,000 in Dallas.
- Conversely, a $50,000 HVAC salary in Arkansas stretches further than $65,000 would in coastal metros.
Recruiting Implications
- Localize compensation. Benchmark wages against the specific metro, not the national average.
- Use flexible pay structures. Offer tool allowances, travel pay, or production bonuses that reward performance without inflating fixed costs.
- Be transparent about total rewards. Health benefits, PTO, and 401(k) matches carry more weight in lower-cost areas where technicians prioritize stability over short-term cash.
Key takeaway: Compensation only works when it’s local. A one-size-fits-all pay scale will fail in a trade as geographically sensitive as HVAC.
Conclusion
The HVAC industry may be national, but its workforce is local. Climate, construction, licensing, unions, and cost-of-living pressures combine to create dozens of unique hiring ecosystems across the country.
A role that attracts twenty applicants in Phoenix might take six months to fill in Pittsburgh, and that’s not a hiring problem; it’s a market reality.
The leaders who win in this environment are the ones who think locally, plan seasonally, and invest in their own pipelines. They understand that great recruiting isn’t about chasing résumés, it’s about forecasting demand, adapting to local conditions, and offering technicians what they value most: stability, opportunity, and respect for their craft.
In HVAC hiring, success doesn’t come from paying more; it comes from understanding more.
Michael Carter
Michael Carter is the President of Talent Solutions, an Abstrakt division specializing in corporate recruiting, staffing, and talent acquisition services. With over 12 years at Abstrakt, Michael has played a key role in cultivating top talent and building high-performing teams. His passion for connecting great people with great companies inspired the launch of Talent Solutions, where he leads a dedicated team focused on delivering fast, effective hiring results across industries. Known for his adaptability and hands-on leadership, Michael is committed to helping businesses grow through strategic, people-first recruitment.
